On Tuesday, November 3, up to 200 million registered voters in the United States may head to the polls to cast ballots for all 435 members of the House of Representatives, 33 senators, 36 of the 50 state governors, as well as members of state and local legislatures. Polls suggest that Donald Trump and the Republican Party face a strong possibility of a crushing defeat, potentially losing control of the House of Representatives and even the Senate. Support for the president is declining across the board. According to The Economist magazine, only 34% of those surveyed approve of Trump’s presidency, while 61% oppose his policies.
Political analysts are divided over whether a “blue wave” will occur, or whether it will be an even more powerful electoral tsunami. In any case, losing Republican control of the House—and perhaps the Senate—would leave Trump vulnerable to congressional investigations aimed at curbing his excessive power and reclaiming the authorities and responsibilities that Congress, under Republican control, had previously ceded to the Executive Branch.
Trump enters the final week of this year’s election season in an extremely weakened position. The U.S. president’s persistent rhetoric, claiming the economy is at its best and that financial hardships, particularly the sharp rise in the cost of living, are merely a Democratic fabrication, does not seem to be convincing voters. Gasoline and diesel prices remain extremely high, and the cost of food and basic consumer goods is placing real pressure on household budgets. Even many of his Republican supporters—who oppose U.S. involvement in “endless wars”—are losing faith in Trump’s promises that an end to the conflict with Iran is near.
Furthermore, Trump appears to be going all-in on interfering in Brazil’s elections by hosting Flávio Bolsonaro, a defeated candidate who fled Brazil, despite having claimed just a day earlier that he would not leave the country.
The Future of Brazil-U.S. Relations
One major shift in the United States, should the Republicans lose the November elections, concerns the approach to Brazil.
Trump, who is hosting the defeated candidate Flávio Bolsonaro, has yet to officially acknowledge the election results. He has even alleged—without any evidence, of course—that the Brazilian elections were fraudulent. Steve Bannon has echoed the claim that Brazil has become a dictatorship deserving of severe sanctions from the United States.
Meanwhile, members of the U.S. Congress promptly sent congratulatory messages to President Lula. Social media posts reflected views from across the political spectrum—from prominent social-democratic figures, such as New York State Assembly member Zohran Mamdani, Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders, and New York Congresswoman Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, to more moderate members of Congress.
Flávio Bolsonaro’s defeat represented a significant blow to Trump, who had implemented a series of fiscal, political, and (likely) covert measures to help his Brazilian ally win. In a region currently dominated by right-wing governments, Brazil, alongside Mexico and Uruguay, will remain at the forefront of the resistance against Trump’s attempts to impose neocolonial domination over Latin America and the Caribbean. Lula’s come-from-behind victory has made Brazil an international benchmark in the fight against the far right.
Should the Republicans lose the upcoming legislative and gubernatorial elections, it would mean that Democrats in Congress—who stood up for Brazilian democracy in 2022 and 2026—could play a key role in ensuring that those who undermined democracy cannot as easily use the United States as a platform to attack Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva’s fourth term.
Rejection of immigration policies
During the 2024 presidential campaign, Trump’s anti-immigrant and xenophobic rhetoric—which included false claims that Haitian refugees were “eating our cats and dogs”—was one of many factors that helped the Republicans win the White House and gain control of Congress.
However, a recent survey of 30,000 Americans across all fifty states revealed that only 37% approve of the president’s immigration policies. In this sample, 11% of Democrats support the White House’s measures, while 78% of Republicans do. A September poll, conducted by the conservative network Fox, indicated that 53% of registered voters believe Trump “went too far” with large-scale operations by ICE (Immigration and Customs Enforcement) to detain undocumented workers. This workforce underpins the service and agricultural sectors.
Deaths of both citizens and immigrants at the hands of masked agents have sparked nationwide outrage, triggering mass protests against the government’s excessive use of force when detaining individuals suspected of being in the country illegally.
Fearing an imminent electoral defeat next week, Trump insists that his opponents won recent special elections because the Democratic Party allowed non-citizen immigrants to participate in the electoral process. The Department of Justice claims to have compiled lists of individuals in various states who are registered to vote illegally and is demanding federal intervention to prevent voter fraud.
However, local officials who run elections across the fifty states have found that only a very small number of ineligible voters have actually cast ballots. For instance, this year, the U.S. government alleged that 16,000 non-citizens were registered to vote in Nevada, yet it provided state election authorities with only 185 names. After reviewing the state’s voter rolls, officials determined that all 185 individuals were eligible U.S. citizens.
Georgia’s Secretary of State, who oversees the electoral process, reported that his office has identified only 432 potential non-citizens over the last 30 years. Even if any of them had voted, the number would be infinitesimally small when compared to the hundreds of millions of votes cast over the past three decades. Even so, Trump continues to propagate this untruth to sow doubt in the minds of his supporters regarding the legitimacy of any election that he—or his allies—might lose.
Opposition to an endless war against Iran
Historically, U.S. citizens tend to rally around the president in the early stages of overseas conflicts, as patriotism surges alongside support for American troops sent into combat. During the Vietnam War, it took years for mass opposition to influence public opinion. Similarly, most Americans initially supported the invasion of Afghanistan, following the September 11, 2001, attacks on the Twin Towers in New York, as well as the wars in Iraq. Over time, public sentiment shifted and turned against these military incursions.
This is not the case regarding a war against Iran. The lack of clearly defined objectives, combined with a runaway spike in fuel prices, has caused public opinion to turn against the conflict from the start. A September CNN poll found that support for the war among Republican voters fell from 73% to 60%. Across the country, farmers, who have tended to vote Republican in recent years, are struggling with high diesel prices that affect planting, harvesting, and transporting agricultural products. This, in turn, has significantly increased food prices.
Trump’s tariffs shake the U.S. economy.
The White House’s erratic tariff policies have also destabilized the economy. Trump’s conflict with Canada, one of the United States’ most important trading partners, created chaos in states that rely on trade between the two nations, particularly affecting businesses and markets located along the border. During his first term, Trump scrapped the trade agreement negotiated with Mexico and Canada, causing severe disruptions for manufacturing firms that supply components for goods production.
Some export markets for food products closed, and many importers of foreign goods raised prices to cover import tariffs.
At the same time, Trump repeatedly misleads the public by claiming the exporting country pays the tariffs, when, in reality, the importer or end consumer bears these additional costs.
Key Senate races to watch
In the 2024 presidential election, experts observed a shift among Black men, Latinos, and people under 30 toward the Republican Party. Based on this perceived trend, Republican-controlled state legislatures began redrawing electoral districts to favor their party, securing roughly a dozen additional districts considered “safe” for their candidates.
However, the strategy backfired. Recent polls indicate that these three demographic groups, disillusioned with Trump’s policies, have moved away from the Republicans and are likely to help elect more Democrats to Congress, potentially enabling the party to gain control of the House of Representatives.
In this context, and given the likely Republican defeat in the House, Trump’s campaign has shifted its focus to Senate races in the final stretch of the election. To gain control of the Senate, Democrats must reelect incumbents in swing states while also winning seats currently held by Republicans.
The races in Georgia and North Carolina appear to be clearly leaning Democratic. In Michigan, Democratic candidate Abdul El-Sayed, a public health physician and Muslim of Egyptian descent, is also involved in a tight contest. His Republican opponent has directed racist and anti-Muslim slurs at him, while also labeling him a “radical socialist” in an attempt to discredit his candidacy. El-Sayed, who leads in the polls by 6%, has remained consistent in his messaging, speaking out against the high cost of living and the prospect of war with Iran, much like nearly all other Democratic candidates.
Another significant Senate race is taking place in Texas, where James Tallarico, a progressive Protestant seminarian, adept at debating biblical interpretations against conservative Republican opponents, holds a slight lead. The state has not elected a Democrat to the Senate in decades.
With voters eager to cast ballots against Trump, Democrats have also found new opportunities to win Senate seats in traditionally conservative states: Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Nebraska, and Ohio. In 2024, Trump won these states by double-digit margins. The GOP’s focus on these solid Republican strongholds shows how much the party is on the defensive. In New Hampshire and Maine, Democratic candidates are either tied with their Republican opponents or hold a narrow lead.
In short, if the Democrats get lucky, or if a “blue tsunami” occurs, Trump could face a hostile majority in Congress next year.
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