In the United States, there’s a term called gerrymandering. It doesn’t have an exact translation into Portuguese, but it’s something like “manipulating an electoral district.” It’s precisely this practice, which emerged in the nineteenth century in the United States, that could guarantee even more power for Donald Trump in the 2026 mid-term elections.
The president is pressuring Republican legislators to implement gerrymandering in Republican-controlled states. This would give the party an advantage in next year’s elections, and Trump could maintain control of the House of Representatives.
Trump already has a tremendous concentration of power in his hands today. He is using the executive branch to implement unprecedented policies that challenge all the practices and traditions of previous presidents. He has a three-member majority in the House of Representatives and a four-seat majority in the Senate, meaning that, with certain exceptions, he can impose his legislative agenda on the country. Finally, he has a six-to-three majority on the Supreme Court, which has ruled in his favor in key cases extending his presidential powers. Despite this, his popularity has plummeted. The only Trump policies currently supported by a majority of Americans are an increase in defense spending and the deportation of undocumented workers who have engaged in violent crimes. Even on the latter issue, which was a major focus of his 2024 election campaign, a recent CNN poll indicated that 55% of respondents say Trump “went too far” in deporting most undocumented workers.
With inflation projected to rise significantly in the second half of the year due to his tariff policies and a reduced low-income workforce due to mass deportations, Trump has yet to deliver on his campaign promise to reduce inflation. And when the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics recently released figures showing a rise in unemployment, he simply fired the agency’s head and appointed a new commissioner, whom many fear will falsify data to favor Trump’s economic vision.
All these problems could jeopardize the midterm elections for Congress, which will be held on Tuesday, November 3, 2026, one week after the runoff elections in Brazil. All 435 seats in the House of Representatives are up for grabs, as are a third of the Senate seats.
Traditionally, the party in the White House loses seats and control of one or both congressional legislative bodies during a midterm election. If the election occurs in the sixth year of a presidency, the likelihood is even greater.
A Democratic electoral victory in November 2026 offers the opposition the best chance of effectively blocking Trump’s political agenda, especially regarding the annual budget and other legislative initiatives that require approval by both houses of Congress. The party with majorities in both houses has near-absolute control over the legislative process, including investigative committees. Democrats could initiate hearings into Trump’s actions, forcing members of his administration to testify before Congress. It would also be possible to investigate his family’s possible corrupt business dealings, particularly regarding the group’s involvement with cryptocurrencies and the possibility that foreign interests may be bribing Trump through them.
So, what exactly is Trump’s strategy to maintain control of Congress in the 2026 elections? To answer this question, let’s first understand the bizarre US electoral system.
Gerrymandering and the US Elections
For Brazilians accustomed to mandatory voting and an organized and efficient electronic voting machines, the US electoral system is curiously strange and confusing.
Federal law dictates that elections for Congress and the presidency take place on the first Tuesday after the first Monday in November, always in even-numbered years. Any U.S. citizen is eligible to vote if they are at least eighteen years old on Election Day.
However, state legislatures determine specific electoral practices, such as voter registration procedures and the voting process itself. They establish residency requirements and what is needed to prove a person is legally authorized to vote, such as one or more identification documents. They can purge voter rolls every two years if they believe potential voters are no longer at their registered address. If a person is not registered to vote, they may go to the polls on Election Day and be told they are ineligible. Some states allow people to register to vote on Election Day, and others allow a person to cast a provisional ballot if their right to vote is contested. This ballot will potentially be counted, but the vote may be invalidated.
Since there is no national identification document, a given state may simply require you to sign your name when voting or ask for one or more proofs of identity. If you want to prevent poor or working-class people from voting, you may require multiple documents, such as a driver’s license, passport, or birth certificate, which many often do not have.
In other words, although U.S. politicians and presidents love to claim that the United States is the most democratic country in the world, there are many procedures and obstacles that make the electoral system quite undemocratic, especially compared to Brazil.
After the U.S. Civil War and the granting of full citizenship rights to freed formerly enslaved people, Section 2 of the 14th Amendment to the Constitution states that “The Representatives [in the House of Representatives] shall be apportioned among the several States according to their respective Numbers, counting the whole Number of Persons in each State.” This means that, based on the U.S. census taken every ten years, all residents of a state, regardless of citizenship or legal status, are included in the calculation of the number of House members representing a given state.
Each state can have at least one representative. Currently, seven states fall into this one-seat category: Alaska, Wyoming, Montana, North Dakota, South Dakota, Vermont, and Delaware. The first five tend to vote Republican and have been known as “red states” since the 1980 election, when TV news programs standardized the color of electoral maps depicting the election results. Vermont and Delaware typically elect a Democrat and are known as “blue states.” States that swing between the two parties in electoral results are known as “purple states.”
The remaining 435 seats are divided by the total census population (in 2020, it was 331.5 million), meaning that each congressional district represents 761,169 residents, not just citizens. California, with the largest population, currently holds 52 seats (which tend to vote blue); Texas, 38 (red); Florida, 28 (red); New York, 26 (blue); and so on.
State legislatures draw the boundaries of the congressional districts. Some states have nonpartisan commissions that draw maps based on reasonable geographic considerations, but most state legislatures draw electoral districts to favor one party or another, taking advantage of the fact that people in a given district tend to vote a certain way. They do this by increasing the number of likely voters for one party and removing voters likely to support the opposing party from the district.
This term became known as gerrymandering in reference to Elbridge Gerry, the Massachusetts governor who designed a district in the Boston area in 1812 that favored his party. The district boundaries were drawn so unusually and irregularly that a political cartoonist associated them with a mythical salamander and coined the term. The practice was once used by both parties, but in recent years, Republicans have been more aggressive in drawing maps that favor their candidates.
The Republican Strategy for 2026
Currently, there are 18 districts, called “swing seats,” where voters can elect either a Republican or a Democrat. In the remaining 417 districts, voters are leaning toward or likely to vote for one party or the other. It’s highly likely that Democrats will do well in the 2026 elections, given Trump’s unpopular policies and historical precedents.
However, just as during the Brazilian military dictatorship, when generals issued numerous institutional acts and presidential decrees to remain in power, Republicans want to change the rules of the game to maintain control of Congress, creating district maps to favor their party.
The “red” state of Texas is at the forefront of this issue. Trump, worried about losing control of the House of Representatives, asked Texas Governor Greg Abbott to instruct the state legislature to redraw the districts, giving Republicans five additional seats, which the president claimed he had a “right” to receive.
In response, the Democratic minority fled Texas to prevent a quorum, preventing the legislature from voting on the bill.
This dramatic act of resistance to blatant Republican electoral manipulation sparked a national debate and a militant response from California Governor Gavin Newsom, a likely Democratic presidential candidate for the party’s nomination, and Illinois Governor J.B. Pritzer, who may also run in the 2028 primaries. Both have promised to do the same if Texas proceeds with redrawing its electoral districts, giving Democrats more congressional seats in both states.
In a defensive response, Trump has promised to pressure Florida to do the same and urged other Republican-controlled state legislatures to follow suit.
It’s difficult to say whether these measures will make a difference in the 2026 elections. For Texas to gain five seats, it will be necessary to divide districts with large Black and Latino populations that have historically voted Democratic and allocate those voters to districts with a majority of white Republican voters. However, they risk creating “purple” districts that may vote Democratic. This could happen if Republican voters, disappointed with Trump’s economic policies or his refusal to release the Epstein files, among other issues, decide to stay home and not vote in 2026.
Historically, voter turnout is 50 to 60 percent in presidential elections, but only 40 percent of eligible voters turn out in the midterms. Analysts speculate that since Trump won’t be on the ballot, many of his less fanatical supporters may stay away from the polls. If Democrats can generate enthusiasm among voters who want to curb Trump’s presidential powers, based on historical trends, they have a real chance of defeating the Republicans in the 2026 election.
Such a defeat, one week after the Brazilian presidential election, could also distract Trump from a harsh reaction to Brazil if a candidate he doesn’t support wins in October 2026. Only time will tell.
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