With the failure of negotiations in Pakistan between U.S. Vice President J. D. Vance and Iranian Parliamentary President Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, Donald Trump is facing the resounding failure of his foreign and domestic policies.
On the eve of the provisional cease-fire that suspending fighting for two weeks, Trump promised that “a whole civilization will die” if Iran didn’t concede to U.S. demands to open the Strait of Hormuz. Although his backers insist that this was merely a negotiating ploy to put pressure on Tehran to come to the bargaining table, legal experts immediately pointed out that Trump runs the risk of committing war crimes if he wages a massive attack on Iran’s infrastructure as he has threatened to do.
Even Pope Leo XIV weighed in, condemning the ways the Trump administration has used religious language to defend its war policies. “God does not bless any conflict,” the pontiff insisted in statement made during Easter week commemorations.
During the twenty-one hours of marathon negotiations in the Pakistani capital, there was apparently no divine intervention in favor of Vance’s proposals to guarantee a peace settlement. Nevertheless, the U.S. side remained adamant that Iran had to pledge it would not develop nuclear weapon capabilities and would open the Strait of Hormuz to international traffic. Iranian negotiators countered that their country had the right to continue its nuclear program. They also called for the U.S. government to lift economic sanctions, provide funds for reconstruction, and restrain Israeli’s attacks on Lebanon.
Now, as the conflict drags into its seventh week with negotiations either stalled or dead, the most recent polls indicate that 53% of Americans oppose Washington’s war against Iran. An additional 10% are adamant against sending in ground troops. A new CBS poll has found that 59% of those polled feel that the war is going somewhat or very bad for the United States.
A faltering U.S. economy, largely due to Trump’s disastrous tariff policies, and the dramatic rise in the price of oil since the outbreak of the war, have also contributed to the U.S. president’s loss of domestic popularity. As overall inflation creeps upward, 61% of those polled consider that the U.S. economy is going to enter a recession in the next twelve months.
Trump’s overall approval rate is also slipping. He currently only has support from 37% of the population, while 56% disapprove of his job performance.
These numbers do not bode well for Republicans who run the risk of losing control of the Congress in the upcoming in the November 2026 elections. If that scenario plays out, Democrats have promised to do everything possible to block the U.S. president’s policies during his last two years in office.
Simply put, Donald Trump is in trouble.
Washington now has the option of renewed bombing to destroy Iran’s infrastructure as Trump promised he would do before the temporary cease-fire took hold, but there is no indication that this will force Tehran to retreat from its demands. Most experts agree that the U.S. and Israeli attacks on Iran have fortified Iranian leaders’ opposition to what they consider unreasonable negotiating demand. If anything, the bombing offensive has hardened their will against the United States.
Currently, Trump finds himself boxed into a corner. The Iranian regime seems confident that it has achieved the upper hand over the United States, and for the moment the Islamic Republic is unwilling to made concessions
No Easy Exit
As negotiations collapsed, Trump announced a U.S. naval blockade to force open the Strait of Hormuz. He also insisted that Iran would not be allowed to charge tolls while granting ships safe passage. Like most of Trump’s public comments and justifications for the war that he has made since the end of February, this new policy makes little sense.
First, the Strait of Hormuz is currently closed because of Trump’s war. Previously the waterway was open to commerce among all nations, and Iran had not made any attempts to block the flow of ships through the passageway.
Moreover, less than a week ago, after the announcement of the two-week ceasefire agreement, Trump told the media that he was considering forming a “joint venture” with Iran to collect tolls from ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz. Now he is denouncing Iran’s intentions to do the same. (Presumably, since negotiations between the two countries have collapsed, at least for the time being, Trump seems to have realized that Tehran may not be interested in a business venture with Washington).
It is also not at all clear how stopping all traffic attempting to go in and out of the Persian Gulf would force Iran to grant free navigation to other nations. Despite the overwhelming power of the U.S. navy, Iran appears willing to resist Trump’s most recent threat at any cost, even if it means sustaining more harm to civilians and damage to the country’s infrastructure from U.S. and Israeli bombing.
Moreover, after the United States and Israel initiated the war with Iran, the surviving leaders of the Islamic Republic decided to widen the conflict by sending missiles and drones to those Arab countries in the region allied with the United States. Although the temporary ceasefire is supposed to last another week or so, spokespersons for the Iranian government have stated that should Trump attack the country’s civilian infrastructure, Iran would unleash a major offensive against those Arab countries that allow U.S. military bases in their territories. This could mean the destruction of oil and gas fields, the halting of shipments of helium and fertilizers, and the decimation of desalinization plants.
Despite bellicose claims by President Trump and Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth that the United States has already achieved a “total and complete” military victory, the Wall Street Journal has reported that according to officials familiar with U.S. intelligence assessments, “Iran still has thousands of ballistic missiles in its arsenal that it could use by retrieving launchers from underground storage areas.”
If the Pentagon fails to force Iran’s capitulation through its proposed naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, the White House could also deploy “boots on the ground” to stop the country’s oil production. However, Trump runs the risk of being sucked into a “never-ending war” that sectors of his MAGA base abhor. Although most Republicans are willing to continue backing the U.S. president’s “war of choice” in Iran, a few prominent MAGA supporters are speaking out against Trump’s bellicose adventure in the Middle East.
Extreme rightwing news anchor Tucker Carlson, for example, denounced Trump’s Easter Sunday message on the war that was filled with obscenities. He also labeled the president’s threat to bomb civilian energy and transportation infrastructure as a war crime.
Conservative podcaster Megyn Kelly also chastised the president for his public comments: “You don’t threaten to wipe out an entire civilization. We’re talking about civilians…” In a recent podcast, she went on to complain about Trump in rather course language: “I don’t know about you, but I am sick of this s—. I’m just — I’m sick of it. Can’t he just behave like a normal human?”
Trump’s response has been to excommunicate his detractors from the movement. “They’re not MAGA, they’re losers,” he said. “As president, I could get them on my side anytime I want to, but when they call, I don’t return their calls because I’m too busy on world and country affairs.”
Trump, a master of self-praise
It is always risky to predict Trump’s next steps because his decision-making practices are so erratic and irrational. Should the U.S. president’s efforts to open the Strait of Hormuz fail, he has another option. He could simple declare a victory and go home. Trump is a master at insisting that everything he does is “perfect,” so it would not be surprising if he took this approach.
After all, he has already claimed that that the U.S. air force entirely “obliterated” Iran’s nuclear capabilities twice in less than a year. With an estimated 970 pounds of enriched uranium buried deeply underground because of U.S. bombing, Trump now vacillates between promising one day to send in U.S. troops to extract the uranium and the next day insisting that it won’t be necessary since Iran’s nuclear capabilities have turned to “dust.”
He has also argued that the United States has successfully engineered a regime change. This ignores the fact that Mojtaba Khamenei, the conservative-leaning son of the recently assassinated Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, has been chosen to succeed his father as Supreme Leader. Moreover, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps retains its influence over the reins of government, even though some of its leaders have been targeted and killed.
Last year Trump promised to come to the assistance of the Iranian people should they revolt against the government. That justification for the U.S war aims has simply faded into the night, as it appears that in the immediate future an insurrection is unlikely to take place.
Finally, the U.S. demands that Iran stop supporting its regional allies seems to have dropped from the list of Trump’s war goals. Both Prime Minister Bibi Netanyahu and the Iranian regime insist that any discussions about Lebanon are not on the table in the talks.
The ultimate problem with claiming victory when there hasn’t been one is that it is not likely to convince many people in the United States or around the world. Regardless of whether either Iran or the United States places a blockade on the Strait of Hormuz, or if Iran drags its Arab neighbors into the war, inevitably it would spark another dramatic increase in oil prices.
The reality TV huckster may be able to convince many in his loyal base that the United States has won the war with Iran, but it will be much harder to convince them that another 50% increase in the price of gasoline will somehow make America great again.
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